Research

Abstract: Climate change poses serious challenges to the economic growth and stability of fishing communities. While a diverse portfolio of fisheries has been shown to stabilize fisheries income for individual fishers and communities, evidence of its role in stabilizing broader local economies remains limited. This study addresses this gap by investigating how fisheries and industrial diversification influence the economic growth and stability of fishing economies. Using the Hyperbolic Distance Function (HDF) approach, we analyze 17 years of fisheries and economic data from 177 Alaska fishing communities. Our findings reveal that both fisheries and industrial diversification significantly shape employment growth and stability. Economic stability often comes at the cost of reduced economic growth, reflecting the risk/return trade-offs inherent in diversification. Additionally, we identify a complementary relationship between industrial diversification and fisheries specialization. This dual-track strategy of balancing diversification and specialization across fisheries and industrial sectors enables communities to adapt their economic structures to local circumstances while minimizing trade-offs between growth and stability. Our results suggest policymakers should prioritize strategies to foster balanced diversification and specialization across fisheries and industrial sectors, offering actionable insights to build resilience in fishing communities facing climate-induced uncertainties.

Abstract: Kelp forests are in decline globally, threatening critical socio-ecological functions such as marine species refugia, coastal productivity, and community livelihoods. In Northern California, the collapse of kelp forests in the last decade, driven by marine heatwaves (MHWs) and a surge in kelp-consuming purple sea urchins, has caused severe ecological degradation and economic hardship. In this paper we develop the first bioeconomic model to evaluate dynamic kelp forest restoration strategies. The model integrates (i) kelp-urchin population feedback dynamics, (ii) two restoration options—kelp outplanting and purple urchin culling—that can be varied in intensity, (iii) restoration costs and economic benefits, including both fishery and direct kelp values, and (iv) a stochastic MHW regime with uncertain frequency. Results show a sharp difference between the two restoration options in how they optimally respond to changes in the population levels, with outplanting used selectively and culling used consistently. Similarly, we find that the lost value from failing to make use of both restoration tools is asymmetric: use of outplanting alone results in substantial loss of value (around half) while losses from using urchin removal alone are much more modest (unless the kelp population is very low). These results are sensitive to the main environmental stress: if MHW frequency shifts permanently to the high level recently experienced, the optimal use of kelp outplanting broadens over possible conditions. Overall we find that the two restoration approaches play distinct, state-dependent roles in efficient restoration that respond dynamically to varying ecological and economic conditions.